If the UKIP earthquake erupted in May at the European elections (as Nick Robinson reported), then there have been a number of aftershocks ever since. All the signs are that this week we’re due yet another such aftershock, although it perhaps a sign of how far UKIP have come in recent months that Mark Reckless’ victory at the Rochester and Strood by-election is being treated as a foregone conclusion.
ComRes polling in the Kent constituency last month had UKIP 13 points ahead of the Conservatives and the question in Rochester and Strood now appears to be not “will UKIP win?” but by how much? While the headline poll figures point to a substantial victory, a closer look at the data shows that UKIP are picking up many would-be voters who did not vote in 2010. UKIP have of course been making a point of galvanising those fed up with the status quo and Westminster politics. However, having 28% of their vote coming from people who did not turnout in 2010 is also risky: can they be counted on to vote on Thursday or indeed on 7th May?
The good news for UKIP is that voters across the political spectrum in Rochester and Strood want to use the by-election to kick David Cameron and his Government: fully six in ten (62%) voters there say that this is a “good opportunity for me to show David Cameron and the Conservative Party how unhappy I am with their government.” The bad news for UKIP is that it points to potential dangers in the General Election.
By-elections are fantastic opportunities for the self-styled “People’s Army” and UKIP have replaced the Liberal Democrats as the by-election party to beat. However, the danger for UKIP is being seen as simply a party of protest, a “none of the above” option. Their real challenge will be to hold on to their supporters at a national, General Election when they are up against the full might of the other parties’ campaign machines, both nationally and locally.
UKIP have, though, continued to confound expectations. Despite various false claims that their support has peaked at various times in this Parliament, their momentum has not been stopped. Rochester and Strood will be another significant milestone. By the end of this week they are likely to have doubled the number of MPs elected to the House of Commons. This will have a real impact, especially on broadcast coverage of the General Election including the case to include Nigel Farage in at least one Leaders debate. It may also encourage other prospective defectors who, unlike Messrs Carswell and Reckless, and given the proximity of 7th May, could cross the floor of the House without necessarily having to fight a by-election.
As the political circus leaves Kent at the end of this week attentions will turn towards May 2015. We can expect rumblings among Conservative MPs but, just as Ed Miliband survived discontent from his Party over the last few weeks, so David Cameron will not face a serious threat to his leadership this close to the Big Day.
The Conservatives are within touching distance of Labour in most current polls. But that is due to a fall in Labour support rather than an increase in Tory popularity, and UKIP now pose a real threat not only to the Conservatives but also to Labour. There is good evidence that the anti-Labour vote in some constituencies is coalescing around UKIP.
A purple victory in Rochester and Strood does not guarantee the seat for UKIP in 2015, but it does keep the good ship UKIP hurtling across the tired political seas. The question is how many more aftershocks will there be before 7th May 2015?
Showing posts with label Rochester & Strood byelection. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Rochester & Strood byelection. Show all posts
Monday, 17 November 2014
Wednesday, 12 November 2014
Putting candidates on the spot over the NHS as it tops the agenda in Rochester and Strood By-Election
The National Health Action Party is challenging candidates in the Rochester & Strood by-election to come clean on their health policies. As the NHS overtakes immigration as the issue that concerns most voters locally, the NHA Party's prospective parliamentary candidate in neighbouring Maidstone and the Weald, Dr Paul Hobday, has issued a set of questions to the 5 main candidates in Rochester & Strood.
The retired GP who's challenging Tory sports minister Helen Grant said: "We are keen that the electorate fully understands what is happening to the NHS and what the Health and Social Care Act , passed by the Coalition Government, actually means. The Conservative and LibDem candidates talk as though the current state of the local NHS is nothing to do with them, despite the Coalition embedding corporate commercialisation and competition
in the NHS by this Act."
The three main political parties are pro-market and commercialisation, as is UKIP. This consensus has limited the debate about privatisation and rarely is it mentioned how wasteful the market is with estimates of its cost being at minimum £5 billion a year (and up to £10 billion from some academics). When Simon Stevens’ recent report highlighted the “funding gap” this elephant in the room was not offered as the solution it clearly could be.
"With this in mind we are asking the 5 main candidates a series of policy questions to pin them down, and expose their true plans. "These are:
The NHAP say they also have some additional questions for the UKIP candidate Mark Reckless :
"Will you apologise to voters and to the Medway Hospitals NHS Trust for misleading information in your campaign leaflets which suggest the NHS back UKIP ?
The retired GP who's challenging Tory sports minister Helen Grant said: "We are keen that the electorate fully understands what is happening to the NHS and what the Health and Social Care Act , passed by the Coalition Government, actually means. The Conservative and LibDem candidates talk as though the current state of the local NHS is nothing to do with them, despite the Coalition embedding corporate commercialisation and competition
in the NHS by this Act."
The three main political parties are pro-market and commercialisation, as is UKIP. This consensus has limited the debate about privatisation and rarely is it mentioned how wasteful the market is with estimates of its cost being at minimum £5 billion a year (and up to £10 billion from some academics). When Simon Stevens’ recent report highlighted the “funding gap” this elephant in the room was not offered as the solution it clearly could be.
"With this in mind we are asking the 5 main candidates a series of policy questions to pin them down, and expose their true plans. "These are:
- Would you vote to repeal in full the Health and Social Care Act ?
- Do you support : (a) the reversal of the privatisation of the NHS ? (b) an end to contracting out services to private companies ? (c) the return of services into public hands ?
- Do you agree the NHS market should be scrapped ?
- Do you agree NHS funding should be increased by a minimum of 4% per annum and brought into line with other G7 countries ?
- Will you call for a halt to cuts and closures of hospitals , A+E departments, maternity and other local services until suitable and accessible
- alternatives are in place ? Decisions must be evidence-based and democratically supported by local clinicians and local people
- Will you oppose further PFI deals and agree to renegotiate existing PFIs on the basis of good value for the taxpayer ?
- Do you oppose any new charges for patients such as for GP visits and hospital stays ?
- Will you call for an exemption of the NHS from TTIP ?
- Do you support NHS strikers calling for the recommended 1% pay rise for NHS staff ?
- Do you agree that prescription charges should be scrapped ?
The NHAP say they also have some additional questions for the UKIP candidate Mark Reckless :
"Will you apologise to voters and to the Medway Hospitals NHS Trust for misleading information in your campaign leaflets which suggest the NHS back UKIP ?
"Can you say which of these statements you agree with ?
National Health Action Party Spokesman said: "Mr Reckless has also signed the People’s NHS pledge to “keep the NHS out of TTIP” which is also a turnaround and strange for someone belonging a party prioritising business and free trade. UKIP claim to be separate from the old Westminster cynical “establishment” and a breath of fresh air but this proves they are no better than the rest with political opportunism. UKIP’s NHS policy is a mess as is clear from the statements quoted above."
- Nigel Farage (October 2014) would like big businessmen to run the NHS and thinks it’s ridiculous to protect the NHS from cuts.
- Paul Nuttall (deputy Chairman) has called for “more free market in the NHS” and congratulated the Coalition for “bringing a whiff of privatisation into the beleaguered NHS”
- Candidates Samuel Fletcher and Bradley Monk both would like the NHS scrapped , with the former requiring everyone to take out private health insurance.
- Health Spokesperson Louise Bours wants to exempt the NHS from TTIP but Trade Spokesman William Dartmouth supports the inclusion of the NHS in TTIP.
- "Mark Reckless supported the Health & Social Care Act, which is a privatisation-enabling Act, at every stage. Now he has swung 180 degrees and is to vote (if re-elected) for the Efford private members’ Bill which will rein in privatisation.
National Health Action Party Spokesman said: "Mr Reckless has also signed the People’s NHS pledge to “keep the NHS out of TTIP” which is also a turnaround and strange for someone belonging a party prioritising business and free trade. UKIP claim to be separate from the old Westminster cynical “establishment” and a breath of fresh air but this proves they are no better than the rest with political opportunism. UKIP’s NHS policy is a mess as is clear from the statements quoted above."
Greens ahead of the Lib Dems in Rochester & Strood
The Green Party is on track to beat the Liberal Democrats in the Rochester and Strood by-election, according to the latest polling. In Lord Ashcroft’s Poll, released yesterday, shows the Greens are polling in fourth (4%), two points ahead of the junior Coalition partners (2%). Only one in ten of those who voted Lib Dem at the last election told Ashcroft pollsters they would do so again next Thursday. 12% of 2010 Liberal Democrat voters naming a party said they would vote Green in the by-election.
On May 22 2014, the Greens comfortably outperformed the Lib Dems in the European parliament elections both in terms of total vote and MEPs returned. Green Party Leader Natalie Bennett, Co-Deputy Leaders Dr Shahrar Ali and Amelia Womack and MEP Keith Taylor have been on the campaign trail with Green candidate Clive Gregory in recent weeks.
Commenting Green leader Natalie Bennett said: "The Ashcroft poll is a strong result for the Green Party, showing us well ahead of the Lib Dems. This is a credit to the local candidate and team who are doing a great job getting out the Green Party message of a society that works for the common good. I also found when I visited Rochester and Strood that voters were really appreciating the fact that Clive Gregory and the Green Party nationally were speaking out against the dangerous, damaging, divisive rhetoric of Ukip on immigration, when other parties were either pandering to it or staying silent."
"The strong poll also reflects the continuation of the national green surge that sees membership of the party continuing growing at a tremendous rate and polling at record levels." Ms Bennett added.
Dr Ali, Co-Deputy Leader and the author of ‘Why Vote Green?’ said: "The people of Rochester and Strood deserve a better deal than that on offer from the other parties. Only the Greens will address the causes of a dysfunctional economic system that puts bankers ahead of local businesses. Only the Greens will put steps in place to protect the planet from the harms of unabated fossil fuel consumption. I am proud to be campaigning alongside Clive in this by-election and ask you to vote for our positive vision."
Commenting Amelia Womack, Co-Deputy Leader and member of the Young Greens’ programme said: "It's clear that people want change from the same old rhetoric of the main parties. But it's only the Greens who have fought for quality housing for all, only Greens who are pushing for a national living wage of £10 per hour and only Greens who will provide evidence based solutions to build a stronger and fairer society and environment. As a local campaigner, Clive is working to fight for the issues that affect residents of Rochester and Strood without blaming the most vulnerable in our society".
Looking beyond the by-election, the Green Party has – for the first time in a decade - polled ahead of the Lib Dems in General Election 2015 polls twice in recent weeks (With Ashcroft and YouGov). The Green Party’s average polling score ahead of the General Election with pollsters YouGov has risen by three percentage points in the last six months. Membership of the Green Party of England and Wales (GPEW) is also surging. Total GPEW membership has passed 25,000 (25,206) and is up 83% since the start of 2014.
On May 22 2014, the Greens comfortably outperformed the Lib Dems in the European parliament elections both in terms of total vote and MEPs returned. Green Party Leader Natalie Bennett, Co-Deputy Leaders Dr Shahrar Ali and Amelia Womack and MEP Keith Taylor have been on the campaign trail with Green candidate Clive Gregory in recent weeks.
Commenting Green leader Natalie Bennett said: "The Ashcroft poll is a strong result for the Green Party, showing us well ahead of the Lib Dems. This is a credit to the local candidate and team who are doing a great job getting out the Green Party message of a society that works for the common good. I also found when I visited Rochester and Strood that voters were really appreciating the fact that Clive Gregory and the Green Party nationally were speaking out against the dangerous, damaging, divisive rhetoric of Ukip on immigration, when other parties were either pandering to it or staying silent."
"The strong poll also reflects the continuation of the national green surge that sees membership of the party continuing growing at a tremendous rate and polling at record levels." Ms Bennett added.
Dr Ali, Co-Deputy Leader and the author of ‘Why Vote Green?’ said: "The people of Rochester and Strood deserve a better deal than that on offer from the other parties. Only the Greens will address the causes of a dysfunctional economic system that puts bankers ahead of local businesses. Only the Greens will put steps in place to protect the planet from the harms of unabated fossil fuel consumption. I am proud to be campaigning alongside Clive in this by-election and ask you to vote for our positive vision."
Commenting Amelia Womack, Co-Deputy Leader and member of the Young Greens’ programme said: "It's clear that people want change from the same old rhetoric of the main parties. But it's only the Greens who have fought for quality housing for all, only Greens who are pushing for a national living wage of £10 per hour and only Greens who will provide evidence based solutions to build a stronger and fairer society and environment. As a local campaigner, Clive is working to fight for the issues that affect residents of Rochester and Strood without blaming the most vulnerable in our society".
Looking beyond the by-election, the Green Party has – for the first time in a decade - polled ahead of the Lib Dems in General Election 2015 polls twice in recent weeks (With Ashcroft and YouGov). The Green Party’s average polling score ahead of the General Election with pollsters YouGov has risen by three percentage points in the last six months. Membership of the Green Party of England and Wales (GPEW) is also surging. Total GPEW membership has passed 25,000 (25,206) and is up 83% since the start of 2014.
Voting intention poll for Rochester and Strood by-election (changes from 2010 general election):
Conservative 32 -17.2
Labour 17 -11.5
Liberal Democrat 2 -14.3
UKIP 44 +44
Green 4 +2.5
Other 1 -0.5
Lord Ashcroft also polled the same people on how they will vote at the 2015 general election, changes also from the 2010 general election:
Conservative 36 -13.2
Labour 21 -7.5
Liberal Democrat 2 -14.3
UKIP 35 +35
Green 5 +3.5
Other 1 -0.5
Friday, 31 October 2014
Poll shows NHS is top issue in Rochester & Strood
An exclusive poll conducted by Survation for Unite in the constituency of Rochester and Strood reveals that the NHS is clearly the most important issue for voters at the forthcoming by-election.
The poll of 1012 people in the constituency also showed that, excluding those who said ‘don’t know’, a significant majority of voters (76 per cent) opposed the inclusion of the NHS in the EU-US trade deal called the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) and want David Cameron to use his veto in Europe to prevent the NHS falling into the scope of this agreement. 37 per cent of voters considered the quality of local NHS hospitals and GP services in Medway to be the most important issue for them and their family at the moment. Concern over immigration trailed by 12 points (at 25 per cent) compared to voter concerns over the NHS.
Unite general secretary, Len McCluskey said: “The future of our NHS is what really matters to voters and their families in Rochester and Strood and it’s going to be what really matters to voters at the next general election. When most voters learn that the NHS is at risk of irreversible privatisation because of the trade deal called TTIP they expect David Cameron to act and be prepared to veto the deal. This is not an isolated poll, a majority of voters across a number of marginal Tory constituencies all want the government to protect the NHS from TTIP. Britain won’t be fooled by vague assurances over the NHS, the people of this country do not believe it’s right for the NHS to be part of an American trade deal. It’s ‘the party that fights most for the NHS’ not ‘the party that fights most against immigration’ that will win the next general election.”
The deal, known as TTIP, is being negotiated 'behind the closed doors', between EU bureaucrats and delegates from the United States. It is the largest bilateral trade deal ever negotiated and threatens to make privatisation of the NHS irreversible by giving the profits of corporations precedence over national lawmakers. TTIP would grant American multinationals, or any firm with American investors, the power to sue the government if it ever attempted to take privatised health services back into public ownership.
A poll, carried out by Survation in August this year, questioned over 2,600 voters across 13 marginal Conservative-held seats. Respondents were asked if health should be excluded from the deal and if David Cameron should use Britain’s veto. Across all constituencies 68 per cent said they opposed the inclusion of the NHS as part of the deal. Opposition was highest from those planning on voting for Labour or UKIP, 78 per cent and 77 per cent respectively, and just 23 per cent of Conservative voters supported inclusion.
The poll of 1012 people in the constituency also showed that, excluding those who said ‘don’t know’, a significant majority of voters (76 per cent) opposed the inclusion of the NHS in the EU-US trade deal called the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) and want David Cameron to use his veto in Europe to prevent the NHS falling into the scope of this agreement. 37 per cent of voters considered the quality of local NHS hospitals and GP services in Medway to be the most important issue for them and their family at the moment. Concern over immigration trailed by 12 points (at 25 per cent) compared to voter concerns over the NHS.
Unite general secretary, Len McCluskey said: “The future of our NHS is what really matters to voters and their families in Rochester and Strood and it’s going to be what really matters to voters at the next general election. When most voters learn that the NHS is at risk of irreversible privatisation because of the trade deal called TTIP they expect David Cameron to act and be prepared to veto the deal. This is not an isolated poll, a majority of voters across a number of marginal Tory constituencies all want the government to protect the NHS from TTIP. Britain won’t be fooled by vague assurances over the NHS, the people of this country do not believe it’s right for the NHS to be part of an American trade deal. It’s ‘the party that fights most for the NHS’ not ‘the party that fights most against immigration’ that will win the next general election.”
The deal, known as TTIP, is being negotiated 'behind the closed doors', between EU bureaucrats and delegates from the United States. It is the largest bilateral trade deal ever negotiated and threatens to make privatisation of the NHS irreversible by giving the profits of corporations precedence over national lawmakers. TTIP would grant American multinationals, or any firm with American investors, the power to sue the government if it ever attempted to take privatised health services back into public ownership.
A poll, carried out by Survation in August this year, questioned over 2,600 voters across 13 marginal Conservative-held seats. Respondents were asked if health should be excluded from the deal and if David Cameron should use Britain’s veto. Across all constituencies 68 per cent said they opposed the inclusion of the NHS as part of the deal. Opposition was highest from those planning on voting for Labour or UKIP, 78 per cent and 77 per cent respectively, and just 23 per cent of Conservative voters supported inclusion.
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