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Tuesday, 23 September 2014

The slow death of political parties

New analysis by Ipsos MORI suggests that by 2024 under a quarter of the voting public will feel connected to one particular political party, compared with over half the population in the 1990s. 

Ipsos MORI used nearly 30 years of data from the British Social Attitudes survey to examine how connection to political parties varies between different generations, and then to project forward a further ten years. 

They say they can do this with some certainty because there are large and consistent differences in connection to political parties between generations – for example, only 19% of Generation Y say they are supporters of one political party, compared with 56% of the pre-1945 generation.

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The massive gap between generations on political engagement is also seen in certainty to vote, based on our new analysis of the Hansard Society’s Audit of Political Engagement. 70% of pre-war generation say they would be certain to vote, but only 25% of Generation Y say the same.

 

Bobby Duffy, Managing Director of the Social Research Institute said: “We face a significant problem with party political engagement of young people in the UK – as our previous work has shown, we have the biggest gap between old and young of any major country in Europe. As we and others have outlined, this does not mean that the youngest generations are uncaring or inactive on the political issues they think are important – far from it. It is more that buying into one particular all-encompassing party manifesto is much less appealing or relevant for a generation that is used to a highly filtered, responsive and individually targeted world. This leaves the most important question of what to do – and there seem to be few convincing answers. The more concrete actions focus on getting younger cohorts to fit into the political system, through encouraging voter registration and turnout. It gets much trickier to think of practical ways the system can fit with these coming generations. But as our analysis shows, the need for new ideas is only going to grow.”

Monday, 22 September 2014

Miliband's plan for Britain's future

Ed Miliband will tomorrow present Labour’s Plan for Britain’s Future: six ambitious national goals our country must achieve over the coming 10 years if it is to succeed for everyday working people. In the Leader’s Speech to the Labour Party Conference in Manchester, he will set out a plan for the next decade to restore faith in the future and ensure the next generation does better than the last. The 10-year plan will help overcome the greatest challenges of our age so that hard work is rewarded, our environment is protected, and everyone gets a decent shot at succeeding in our economy, as well as transforming our NHS so it provides the care our families need in this century as well as it did in the last.

Mr Miliband puts securing the future for young people at the heart of his goals saying the next Labour government will: raise the number of school leavers going on to high quality apprenticeships so it is equal to those who go on university; double the number of families getting on the housing ladder; preventing young entrepreneurs who start a business from being locked out of pensions and mortgages; and creating a million high-tech high-wage jobs in the green economy of the future. He will reiterate that Labour is committed to clearing the deficit in the next Parliament and therefore will not make any unfunded spending pledges.

But he will also show how, through big reform not big spending, Labour’s Plan will ensure the recovery works for working people not just a few at the top. His speech will seek to raise the British people’s sights for what can be achieved, by making our country work for them once again, with a national mission to change the fundamentals of our economy and turn decisively away from a Tory government run only for the privileged few. For each of these goals, One Nation Labour’s manifesto will set out policies for the first years of government which will establish a clear pathway to meeting them over the next decade

Labour's plan for 2015: 6 Goals for Britain's future

1. Giving all young people a shot in life: Ensure as many school-leavers go on to apprenticeships as go to university
2. Tackling the cost-of-living crisis: Help working families share fairly in the wealth of our country so, when the economy grows, the wages of everyday working people grow at the same rate.
3. Restoring the dream of home ownership: Meet demand for new homes for the first time in half a century - doubling the number of first-time buyers getting on to the housing ladder a year.
4. Tackling low wages: Halve the number of people on low pay in our country, changing the lives of over two million people.
5. Securing the future: Create one million more high-tech jobs by securing the UK’s position as is a world leader in green industries.
6. Saving our NHS: Build a world-class, 21st century health and care service.

Mr Miliband will say: “’Can anyone build a better future for the working people of Britain?’ That is the general election question. So many people have lost faith in the future. I’ve met young people who should have the brightest of futures who tell me their generation is falling into a black hole. People in England who think all politics is rubbish. People in Scotland who wanted to leave our country because they felt they had nothing left to lose. Our task is to restore people’s faith in the future. But the way to do it is not to break up our country. It is to break with the old way of doing things, break with the past. I’m not talking about changing a policy, or simply a different programme. But something that is bigger: transforming the idea, the ethic, of how our country is run."

"Strip away all of the sound and fury and what people across England, Scotland and Wales, across every part of the UK, are saying is this country doesn't care about me. Politics doesn't listen. The economy doesn't work. And they are not wrong. They are right. But this Labour Party has a plan to put it right. For Labour, this election is about you. You have made the sacrifices, you have taken home lower wages year after year, you have paid higher taxes, you have seen your energy bills rise, you have seen your NHS decline, you know this country doesn’t work for you. We can build that better future for you and your family, wherever you live in the United Kingdom, and this speech is about Labour’s plan to do it: Labour’s plan for Britain’s future."

"I want to set out six national goals, not just for one year or one term of office, but a plan for the next ten years: Britain 2025.”

Goal 1: Apprenticeships in 2025: Ensure as many school-leavers go on to apprenticeships as go to university.

The challenge: There are not enough advanced, high quality apprenticeships available for school-leavers - with four times as many going to university instead. This is leaving both young people and businesses without the skills they need to succeed for the future.

Labour’s Plan for the first years of the next government:
  • Require every firm getting a major government contract to offer apprenticeships.
  • Insist that large employers hiring skilled workers from outside the EU offer apprenticeships to young people in the UK.
  • Give employers more control over how the government spends training funds in return for them providing more high quality apprenticeships in their sectors and supply chains.
  • Create thousands more apprenticeships in the public sector, including the Civil Service, creating a fast track scheme like that already existing for graduates from top universities.
  • Focusing apprenticeships on new entrants to the labour market, because under this Government more than 75 per cent of new apprenticeships have gone to over 25 year olds.
Mr Miliband will say: "A plan for our country, a plan for our families, must have at its heart a future for all our young people. So here we need the biggest national effort that we have seen for generations with young people showing the ambition to get on, schools and colleges offering gold standard technical qualifications, and business and government leading a revolution in apprenticeships."

Goal 2: Living standards in 2025: Help working families share fairly in the wealth of our country so, when the economy grows, the wages of everyday working people grow at the same rate.

The challenge: The link between the wealth of our nation and family finances has been broken resulting in a cost-of-living crisis for millions of everyday working people. Even after months of economic recovery, the average worker is more than £1,600 worse off than in 2010 while Britain’s growing army of self-employed – now standing at five million – have seen their living standards fall 14 per cent since 2009/10.

Labour’s Plan for the first years of the next government:
  • Ensuring Britain’s army of self-employed people see the benefits of going out to work by stopping them being locked out of mortgages or pensions.
  • Improving skills and productivity with new gold standard vocational qualifications and more high quality apprenticeships.
  • Supporting small firms with a cut in business rates and giving them access to the finance they need through a proper British Investment Bank and a more competitive banking system.
  • Building growth across all regions of the country by devolving £30 billion of funding and giving control over the full revenue from business rates to powerhouse economic regions.
  • Introducing an industrial strategy in sectors which create the high skill, high wage jobs of the future, including ten year certainty for science and innovation budgets.
Mr Miliband will say: "There is only one way to achieve this: to transform our economy so that it starts to create good jobs at decent wages. It means bigger reform of our banks, so they help create those good jobs; it means getting power out of Whitehall; it means businesses and trade unions engaged not in confrontation but in cooperation; and it means this great Party using our historic values to fight for the people in the frontline of the modern workforce - the growing army of our self-employed, five million working people, so often the most entrepreneurial, go-getting people in our country.

They don’t want special treatment. But they do deserve a fair shot: two thirds have no pension, one in five is stopped from getting a mortgage: it is time to end this modern injustice. The next Labour government will ensure the self-employed are not locked out of the benefits that come from going out to work.”

Goal 3: Housing in 2025: Meet demand for new homes for the first time in half a century - doubling the number of first-time buyers getting on to the housing ladder a year.
The challenge: Housebuilding has reached its lowest level in peacetime since the 1920s and the dream of home ownership is slipping out of reach for millions of young families with the number of first-time buyers under this Government averaging less than 200,000 a year.

Labour’s Plan for the first years of the next government
  • Increase the number of new homes being built to at least 200,000 homes a year by the end of the next Parliament.
  • Create new Olympic-style delivery agencies called New Homes Corporations to drive through large scale housing development at pace.
  • Make building new homes, including in the public sector, a top priority in our capital investment programme over the next Parliament.
  • Give ‘use it or lose it’ powers for local communities to tackle developers who hoard land unnecessarily.
  • Deliver a new generation of Garden Cities and give landlocked councils a right to grow.
Mr Miliband will say: "The confidence and security that comes from having your own home is missing for so many people in Britain today; that most British of dreams, the dream of home ownership, has faded. We will stop the large developers sitting on land and we will back the thousands of small developers and construction companies with access to new loans, there will be new towns, Garden Cities and suburbs with a half a million new homes, and housing will be a top priority in our capital investment programme - because we need to start Britain building again."

Goal 4: Green Technology in 2025: Create one million more high-tech jobs by securing the UK’s position as is a world leader in green industries

The challenge: Climate change is real, man-made and happening. But the Tories have betrayed their promises on the environment, undermining Britain’s ability to compete for a global green industry market worth £3.4 trillion a year with investment in clean energy falling.

Labour’s Plan for the first years of the next government
  • A clear commitment to tackling climate change by supporting an ambitious, legally-binding international agreement on climate change at the Paris Conference in 2015
  • Boosting investment in low-carbon technologies by a setting a legal target to remove the carbon from our electricity supply by 2030 and developing an active industrial strategy for the green economy.
  • Strengthening the Green Investment Bank so it can invest in the technologies and industries of the future.
  • Devolving power to ensure 5 million homes are insulated.
Mr Miliband will say: "Under this Government, Britain lags behind Germany, Japan, the United States and even India and China for low-carbon, green technologies and services. So many of our brilliant businesses are desperate to play their part in creating their jobs of the future but they just can’t do it unless government does its bit. With our plan, we will. It is incredibly important to our economy today. And it is the most important thing I can do in politics for the future of my kids and their generation.”

Goal 5: Low pay in 2025. Labour will halve the number of people on low pay in our country, changing the lives of over two million people.

The challenge: The number of workers on low pay now stands at over five million - a fifth of all employees - with half of all people in poverty now living in working households. The proportion of UK workers who are low paid is one of the worst in the developed world – 25th out of a league table of 30 OECD countries.

Labour’s plan for the first years of the next government· 
  • Raise the National Minimum Wage to £8 an hour by the end of the next Parliament, double the increase under this government and bringing the lowest paid closer to average earnings.
  • Strengthen enforcement of the National Minimum Wage by increasing the penalty for non-payment to £50,000 and giving local authorities new powers to support the work of HMRC.
  • Offer ‘Make Work Pay’ contracts to those accrediting as Living Wage employers, with firms getting a tax rebate worth up to £1,000 per worker funded by the increased tax and National Insurance revenues the Treasury receives.
Mr Miliband will say: "Building a country together means not just using but rewarding the talents of all. The Tories are the party of wealth and privilege. Labour is once again the Party of hard work fairly-paid.”

Goal 6 - the NHS in 2025: Build a world-class, 21st century health and care service

The challenge: The Tories haven’t just de-stabilised the health service and wasted billions on a top-down reorganisation, they are holding the NHS back from meeting the challenges of the 21st Century: an ageing population, more people living with chronic conditions, the rise of mental health, and a higher premium on preventing illness. As a result, the NHS is going backwards with one in four patients waiting a week or more for a GP appointment, the number of older people ending up in hospital unnecessarily at an all-time high because of inadequate social care, and waiting lists at their highest for six years.

Labour’s Plan for the first years of the next government:
  • Guaranteeing 48 hour access to GPs to improve services and ease pressure on A&E at hospitals.
  • Repealing the Government’s Health & Social Care Act to put the right values back at the heart of the NHS and stop wasteful spending.
  • Integrating health and care services, ensuring joined-up, preventative care to help keep people healthy out of hospital.
  • Strengthening patient entitlements, including to mental health treatments.
Mr Miliband will say: "A hospital is only as good as the services in the community. If people can’t get to see their GP, if they can’t get the care they need at home, they end up in hospital when that could have been avoided. That’s bad for them, and it costs billions of pounds. We know there are huge future pressures facing the NHS: so we are going to have to transform the way it works in the years ahead."

over 16,000 join the SNP since Thursday

The wave of democratic engagement resulting from the referendum is continuing, the SNP has said today, as 16,694 new members took the party’s total membership to 42,336 as of 4pm - closing in on the UK-wide membership of the Lib Dems, which is 43,451.

With this influx of new members joining the SNP since the referendum – many of them from Labour’s heartlands – the Westminster establishment now face serious pressure to deliver on the substantial new powers for Scotland which the No camp promised during the campaign.

Commenting, SNP Business Convener Derek Mackay MSP said: "Scotland’s referendum was an incredible triumph of democracy – and the new wave of democratic engagement and activism the Yes campaign inspired shows no signs of stopping. That nearly 17,000 new members have joined the SNP in the last few days – taking the party’s membership to over 42,000 – is incredibly encouraging and confirms that it is the SNP that the people of Scotland trust to work in Scotland’s best interests."

"This was reinforced by the Survation poll carried out immediately after the referendum which put SNP support at 49 per cent for a Scottish Parliament election - 4 points up even on our 2011 landslide vote. As Labour meets in Manchester, their position in Scotland grows more and more precarious. With nearly 17,000 new members joining the SNP – and Labour’s heartlands voting Yes in the referendum – the Labour leadership will be increasingly worried. Ordinary Labour voters simply won’t forget Johann Lamont’s alliance with the Tories in the No campaign."

"It is this new wave of democratic engagement which will hold the Westminster establishment to account on their vow of more powers for Scotland - people simply won’t accept the same old politics as usual from Westminster. Anything less than the substantial powers we need to make Scotland a fairer, more prosperous place would be an insult to this new movement. Westminster has to deliver – or the No parties will face the consequences at the ballot box."

Its make or break for Miliband the unloved

By Peter Kellner of YouGov

Scotland’s drama holds two big and uncomfortable lessons for Ed Miliband. The first is that the referendum campaign revealed the unpopularity of Labour’s leader in a part of Britain that his party used to dominate, and whose votes he needs if he is to become Prime Minister.

On the eve of Thursday’s vote, YouGov found that only 25% of Scots trusted him, while 67% did not. His figures were virtually the same as David Cameron’s – a shocking equality for a country which dislikes the Conservatives so much that it currently has only one Tory MP, compared with Labour’s 41. Gordon Brown’s interventions may well have helped the No campaign secure its victory last week; Miliband’s did not.

In practical terms, Miliband needs to shore up Labour’s support in Scotland between now and next year’s election. The risks and consequences of failure are great. Suppose that next spring, Scottish voters feel that London’s politicians have ratted on their pledge to act swiftly to transfer big new powers to Scotland. They might well turn to the SNP.

Only three Labour seats are vulnerable to a 5% swing to the SNP; but then comes a tipping point. An 8% swing would cost Labour 19 seats – and probably Miliband’s hopes of becoming Prime Minister.

This means that Miliband must show Scotland’s voters that his commitment to further devolution is real, and not just a shallow, panic-driven reaction in the past fortnight to YouGov’s dramatic poll in this paper two weeks ago showing the collapse of Better Together’s lead north of the border.

But the more Miliband offers Scotland, the more he risks alienating England’s voters. The second big lesson from last week’s vote is that striking the right balance will be immensely tricky.

This is clear from YouGov’s latest Sunday Times survey. Not surprisingly, 72% of English voters think Scottish MPs should no longer have the vote in Parliament on issues that affect only England. Perhaps more significantly, as many as 55% also think that Scottish MPs should play no part in tax and spending decisions taken in London, even though these do affect life in Scotland. And almost two thirds of English voters want to scrap the “Barnett formula”, which ensures that Scotland receives more publish spending cash per person than England from central government.

Miliband’s task would be more manageable were he to have the cushion of high personal ratings across Britain. He doesn’t. It’s not just Scottish voters who are wary of him.

Just 21% of Britons think he is doing well as party leader. He lags David Cameron by two to one (17-35%) when people are asked which party leader they trust most on the economy. A mere 9% think he is strong. By 60-20% people say he is not up to the job of Prime Minister.

Even Labour supporters remain unconvinced. Only half of them think is doing well, trust him on the economy or think he is up to being Prime Minister. In contrast, fully 90% of Conservatives think highly of Cameron.

How, then, should Miliband respond to his Scottish dilemma and his poor personal ratings? His best course would be to treat his post-referendum problems not as ones of tactical party calculation but ones of great long-term significance for the whole of the United Kingdom. If that means sacrificing Labour short-term party interest in order to achieve a lasting constitutional settlement, so be it. He might be surprised how much respect he earns.

At this week’s conference, and especially in his speech on Tuesday, Miliband needs to persuade voters in both north and south of the border that he can rise to the scale of the challenges he faces. He has his best opportunity since he became leader four years ago to rise above the daily political grind and show that he is a principled national leader.

This analysis was first published in the Sunday Times

Balls pledges to balance the books "so it works for all working people not just a few"

"Labour’s plan for Britain’s future will balance the books and change our economy so it works for all working people and not just a few" – Ed Balls. In his speech to the Labour Party Conference today the Shadow Chancellor Ed Balls set out what he calls Labour’s plan for Britain’s future will balance the nation’s books and change Britain’s economy so that it works for all working people and not just a few.

Setting out Labour’s task Ed Balls said: "Labour’s economic plan will balance the books. But an economic plan must do much more than that. We also need to change the way our economy works… Because while our economy is growing again most working people are still not seeing any benefit from the recovery. This is our task: not to flinch from the tough decisions we must make and to show the country that there is a better way forward. Labour's plan for Britain's future: to build an economy that works for the many, and not just a few - for all working people in every part of our United Kingdom.”

He set out Labour’s commitment to balancing the books in the next Parliament: "Three years of lost growth at the start of this parliament means we will have to deal with a deficit of £75 billion – not the balanced budget George Osborne promised by 2015. And that will make the task of governing hugely difficult. People know we are the party of jobs, living standards and fairness for working people. But they also need to know that we will balance the books and make the sums add up and that we won’t duck the difficult decisions we will face if they return us to government.

"Working people have had to balance their own books. And they are clear that the government needs to balance its books too. So Labour will balance the books in the next parliament. These will be our tough fiscal rules. We will get the current budget into surplus and the national debt falling as soon as possible in the next parliament. And we will legislate for these tough fiscal rules in the first year after the election and they will be independently monitored by the Office for Budget Responsibility. And our Zero-Based Review of public spending is examining every pound spent by government to cut out waste and make different choices."

He announced that the total pay of Ministers will be cut by five per cent and frozen until the next Labour government has achieved its promise to balance the books: "The next Labour government will get the deficit down. And Ed Miliband and all my Shadow Cabinet colleagues are clear it will mean cuts and tough decisions and we will take the lead. So I can announce today that if we win the election, on day one of the next Labour government the pay of every government Minister will immediately be cut by five per cent. Ministerial pay will then be frozen each year until we have achieved our promise to balance the nation’s books. Because we are all clear that everybody in the next Labour government will be fully focused on that vital task of getting the deficit down."

And he announced that rises in child benefit will be capped at one per cent for the first two years of the next Parliament: "We will have to make other decisions which I know will not be popular with everyone. At a time when the public services that pensioners rely on are under such pressure, we will stop paying the winter fuel allowance to the richest five per cent of pensioners. I want to see child benefit rising again in line with inflation in the next parliament, but we will not spend money we cannot afford. So for the first two years of the next parliament, we will cap the rise in child benefit at one per cent. It will save £400 million in the next Parliament. And all the savings will go towards reducing the deficit.

“But unlike the Tories we will always ask those who have the most to make the biggest contribution. That is why, with the deficit still high and working people already paying more, we opposed David Cameron cutting the 50p top rate of tax. Now cannot be the right time to give the richest one per cent of people in the country a £3 billion tax cut. So as we get the deficit down in the next parliament, the next Labour government will reverse this Tory tax cut for millionaires. Because Labour will balance the books in a fairer way."

His speech also set out a number of other elements in Labour’s economic plan, including:
  • A Compulsory Jobs Guarantee for young people and the long-term unemployed – paid for by a tax on bank bonuses and restricting pensions tax relief for the highest earners on the top rate of tax
  • Raising the minimum wage to £8 an hour by the end of the next Parliament
  • A plan to get at least 200,000 new homes built a year by 2020
  • Making work pay by expanding free childcare for working parents – paid for by increasing the bank levy
  • Radical plans to devolve economic power and resources to city and county regions of England
  • Establishing a proper British Investment Bank and ensuring proper competition in banking and energy markets to help families and business alike
  • A cut in business rates for 1.5 million business properties – paid for by not going ahead with next year’s further cut in corporation tax
  • An independent National Infrastructure Commission to end the dither and delay on the big decisions Britain needs to make for the future
Exchequer Secretary to the Treasury, Priti Patel, responding to Ed Balls' speech commented: "This speech isn’t a serious plan for the economy – Labour would put the deficit up, not down These savings on ministerial pay only cut a miniscule fraction of the deficit - less than 1 per cent of 1 per cent. And it comes just days after the IFS said Labour’s economic policy means £28 billion extra borrowing. For all his bluster, Ed Balls still refuses to admit that Labour spent too much and he’s opposed every decision we’ve taken to cut the deficit. All a Labour government would offer is more inefficient spending, more taxes and more debt than our children could ever hope to repay."

Liberal Democrat Deputy Leader Sir Malcolm Bruce commenting on Ed Balls' speech said: "Ed Balls has spent the past four years railing against child benefit changes only to switch positions at the 11th hour. You can't trust Labour on the economy and you certainly can't trust a Gordon Brown sidekick who sucked up to bankers as city minister and watched dumbfounded as the economy crashed around him. It's great that he finally acknowledges the blackhole Labour left in the country's finances but his big idea, by his own calculations, saves just 80 million-a-year. If Labour want to be taken seriously on the economy Mr Balls will need to explain how he'll tackle the rest of the deficit."

Wednesday, 17 September 2014

It’s your vote, don’t lose it says Electoral Commission

Voters at the referendum are being reminded to make sure they know what they need to do to make sure their vote counts. The Electoral Commission is reminding voters that to cast their vote they must:
  • Show their choice by putting a cross (‘X’) in the ‘Yes’ or ‘No’ box on their ballot paper.
  • Make sure they know where their polling place is located and get there between 7am and 10pm on polling day.
  • Make sure that their postal votes or proxy votes (where someone has appointed a person they trust to cast their vote on their behalf) are received by the local Counting Officer by 10pm on polling day in order for it to count.
Andy O’Neill, Head of Scotland Office at the Electoral Commission, said: "We know a lot of people will be voting for the first time on Thursday and we want no one to miss out. It’s easy to vote. Polling stations are open from 7am to 10pm. Make sure you know where your polling station is and when you get there place an ‘X’ on your ballot paper. You don’t need a poll card to be able to cast your vote, but if you have it, do bring it as it will speed up the process inside the polling place."

All of this information, and more, can be found in the Electoral Commission’s voting guide, which can still be viewed at www.aboutmyvote.co.uk. In addition, the Commission’s helpline, which is on 0800 3 280 280, will be available throughout polling day to help voters with any queries about the voting process.

Since launching its voter information campaign on 11 August, the Commission’s helpline has already handled over 13,000 enquiries from members of the public - the highest ever for a campaign in Scotland. The majority have been requests for registration and postal vote forms.

Over 400 calls have been about the voting process at polling stations and the Electoral Commission is encouraging anyone not sure about what to expect at the polling station or how to mark their ballot paper to read its impartial voting guide or call its helpline.

Andy O’Neill continued: "Anyone with any questions shouldn’t hesitate to give us a call on 0800 3 280 280 or read our voting guide at aboutmyvote. First time voters unsure of what to expect on Thursday can also see a virtual ‘polling station walk through’ on our website. It’s your vote, make sure you don’t lost it."

Half of Brits support devolution in England & Wales

The latest poll conducted by ComRes for ITV News reveals that half of Britons (48%) support more decision making powers being devolved to English and Welsh cities and regions, although half (47%) oppose Wales having an independence referendum.

63% of the population believe that Scotland remaining part of the UK is good for Britain, compared to 14% who say it is bad for Britain. However, more than half of Britons (54%) support the idea of not allowing Scottish MPs in the UK Parliament in Westminster to vote on issues that do not impact on Scotland.

While nearly one third (30%) of Britons say that they do not care whether Scotland becomes independent, more than half (54%) disagree.

Just one in three Britons (31%) think that David Cameron should resign if Scotland becomes independent - half (48%) think not. Ed Miliband is perceived as slightly less culpable, with just one in four (24%) saying he should resign as Leader of the Labour Party if Scotland becomes independent.

Tom Mludzinski, Head of Political Polling at ComRes said: "Whatever the result of the referendum, the United Kingdom as we know it will be dramatically different. Greater devolution around the UK, and the West Lothian question are now creeping up the agenda and this poll demonstrates that there is some appetite for answers to the big questions thrown up south of the border as a result of the referendum campaign."

Detailed Findings:

Q. Do you agree or disagree with each of the following statements?

David Cameron should resign as Prime Minister if Scotland votes to become independent

  • Agree 31%
  • Disagree48%
  • Don't Know21%
Even if Scotland votes to remain in the United Kingdom but the result is very close, David Cameron should resign as Prime Minister
  • Agree 25%
  • Disagree 53%
  • Don't Know 22%
Ed Miliband should resign as Leader of the Labour Party if Scotland votes to become independent
  • Agree 24%
  • Disagree 52%
  • Don't Know 25%
Base: All GB adults (n=2,052).

Q. Do you agree or disagree with each of the following statements?

Scotland's economy would be worse off if it were an independent country
  • Agree 60%
  • Disagree 16%
  • Don't know 24%
If Scotland becomes an independent country, the UK's standing around the world will be harmed
  • Agree 40%
  • Disagree 33%
  • Don't know 27%
I don't care if Scotland becomes independent or not
  • Agree 30%
  • Disagree 54%
  • Don't know 16%
Scotland deserves to be an independent country
  • Agree 26%
  • Disagree 41%
  • Don't know 33%
Scotland would thrive as an independent country
  • Agree 16%
  • Disagree 54%
  • Don't know 30%
The UK is better off without Scotland
  • Agree 14%
  • Disagree 60%
  • Don't know 26%
Base: All GB adults (n=2,052).

Q. Regardless of the result of the Scottish referendum, Scotland is likely to receive more decision making powers. Do you support or oppose each of the following?

Not allowing Scottish MPs in the UK Parliament in Westminster to vote on issues that do not impact on Scotland
  • Support 54%
  • Oppose 23%
  • Don't know 24%
Giving more decision making powers on issues such as tax, education, policing to big cities and regions in England and Wales
  • Support 48%
  • Oppose 25%
  • Don't know 27%
Setting up an English Parliament for only English MPs
  • Support 40%
  • Oppose 33%
  • Don't know 27%
Wales holding a referendum on independence
  • Support 23%
  • Oppose 47%
  • Don't know 30%
London becoming independent from the rest of the UK
  • Support 9%
  • Oppose 73%
  • Don't know 17%
Base: All GB adults (n=2,052).