Could the Greens really hold the balance of power on the GLA?

Recent polling figures have shown that with the Conservative Party likely to reduce its allocation on the London Assembly after the election on Thursday. All of the constituency seats are held by either the Labour party or the Tories. The two most marginal constituencies are Enfield & Haringey 1,402 and Brent & Harrow 1,649. Both seats were won by the Labour party in 2008. So there are fourteen constituency members but the list system which provides a further eleven seats and the Greens could help hold the balance of power next term.

2008 GLA constituency map

In 2008 the list seats were:

British National party 1

Conservative party 3
Green party 2

Labour party 2
Liberal Democrats 3

So in 2008 the complete Assembly result was:

Conservative party 11
Labour party 8
Liberal Democrats 3
Green party 2
British National party 1

With the Coalition parties likely to take a beating in the local elections across the country, London isn't likely to be any different. So as many as six seats could be up for grabs although the Tories will get at least one seat & the Liberal Democrats should hold on to at least one also. The United Kingdom Independence Party is likely to gain from a collapse in the Tory vote. and likely that should a Liberal Democrat vote collapse should favour the Green party rather than the Labour party.

The British National Party are likely to lose Richard Barnbrook's seat their campaign has not been very good. Some of the things that Carlos Cortiglia has said are unbelievable suggesting that they are anti-racism, pro-equality including gay rights and the champions of a multicultural society. However Nick Griffin's tweet during the Tottenham Court Road siege yesterday showed that is complete nonsense.

Green Party Mayoral candidate Jenny Jones, who along with Darren Johnson, is one of two existing London Assembly members, said: “The Greens have consistently been able to play a leading role in determining policy at City Hall, and by voting Green on the Assembly in May London can help ensure whoever is Mayor next year is best held to account. “The introduction of civil partnerships and the London Living Wage, the prevention of the Thames Gateway Bridge and massive increases in the cycling budget and provision all demonstrate that the Greens are able to set aside personality politics and old rivalries to win real achievements for Londoners. 

Whatever the results in the Mayoral and Assembly elections, we will use our influence next term to win real victories for Londoners on the issues that affect them most: making fares affordable, tackling the air pollution that claims so many lives, restoring trust in the police and making London fairer and more equal for everyone. As I said yesterday, the polls don’t always provide a fair reflection on voting attention—and these aren’t even our best results this week—but we are very happy that more and more Londoners are relating to our Green vision for the capital.”