Like Labour the Liberal Democrats would be hurt by the proposed changes, the only party that benefits from the change is really the Conservative party and as the Tories broke the coalition agreement by failing to get ninety one of their backbenchers into the aye lobby on Lords reform it is clear to see that Mr Clegg is developing a backbone by standing up to Cameron and saying no to what the Tories want this time.
Mr Cameron on confirming he will push ahead regardless of the outcome said that "obviously we want the boundary vote to go ahead". "I am going to say to every MP 'look the House of Commons ought to be smaller, less expensive and we ought to have seats which are exactly the same size'," he said. "I think everyone should come forward and vote for that proposal because it is a very sensible proposal and it will be put forward."
However, I believe he is planning on calling the Liberal Democrats bluff by pushing on. It is unheard of for parliamentary private secretaries to be allowed to stay in the government if they vote against government policy it is totally unbelievable to think the Deputy Prime Minister plus the four other Lib Dem cabinet Ministers and nineteen junior ministers could stay.
Cameron would be under serious pressure from his own side to push the Lib Dems out and govern as a minority government. Stewart Jackson (Con Peterborough) tweeted "Lib Dems have ratted on a solemn promise. What is the point of continuing with Coalition other than to keep Cameron in No 10 at any cost?" He followed that up with with "So when are we going to get a vote on a marriage tax break or British Bill of Rights or EU referendum? The Coalition is all but dead anyway".
So it is starting to unravel and the Prime Minister may be considering using it as an excuse to break the coalition and govern alone and the Liberal Democrats need all the time to detoxify their brand before the next election. Although as there are over two years to go before the next election it is safe to say the Tories wouldn't be able to govern on their own for long as they just haven't got the votes in the Commons.
Although there could be a change of government without an election. If the Conservatives can't keep the confidence of the Commons then the Prime Minister goes to the Palace and informs Her Majesty of the situation and advises her to call on the Leader of the Opposition to see if he can form a government. Dave will be hoping he can't as then he can call a general election. However the breakdown of seats show they could form a government in reality. As Sinn Fein don't take their 5 seats only 323 is needed for a majority of one:
Labour party 257 (258 when they win Corby)
Social Democratic & Labour Party 3 (who take the Labour whip)
Liberal Democrat party 57
Total 318 short by 5
Conservative party 305 (when they lose Corby)
Democratic Unionist Party 8
Total 312 short by 11
Others
Scottish National Party 6
Plaid Cymru 3
Independent 2
Alliance Party 1
Green party 1
Respect 1
Total 14
Labour and the Liberal Democrats would be short by five of a majority but would have the advantage over the Conservatives/DUP as all of the others with the exception of one, Lady Silvia Herman (Ind North Down) are of the centre left and would more than likely be willing to work with a Lib/Lab coalition on a supply and confidence basis when it comes to the budgets and Queen's speeches. Of course it has been in the past the Scots/Welsh Nationalist's policy not to vote on English only matters.
So a credible government led by Ed Miliband with the Liberal Democrats could come into place. The only snag would be the Lib Dem leader Nick Clegg. During the Alternative Vote (AV) referendum the Labour leader refused to sit on a platform with Mr Clegg. But Shadow Chancellor Ed Balls has said in the past that the Labour party would be happy to work with Vince Cable.
So if the Lib Dems managed to agree to a coronation for Vince Cable to be their new leader then there could easily be another coalition governmet. David Cameron could easily just end up with him and his party back on the other side of the House in opposition. If that did happen then I doubt as being as ruthless as the are the Conservative party would allow him to remain as the leader of their party.
So Cameron's gamble to try and go to the country two years early could easily just backfire in his face. Not only putting Labour back into power but finishing his front line political career for good and Mr Cameron going down in history as one of the shortest serving Prime Minister's ever!
