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Monday, 3 September 2012

Cameron/Clegg set to reshuffle the Ministerial team

Many will want a place at the table

Prime Minister David Cameron will, maybe as early as tonight, attempt to reclaim the political initiative as MPs return to Westminster after a bruising summer marked by an outbreak of internal dissent over his leadership. The Prime Minister will seek to reassert his authority over his restive Conservative Party with his first Cabinet reshuffle since the coalition took office in 2010.

At the same time ministers are preparing a series of high-profile announcements intended to inject new life into the moribund economy and pull the country out of recession. Mr Cameron used an article for a Sunday newspaper to declare his determination to end the "paralysis" and "cut through the dither" that was holding the country back. His comments were seen as a riposte to Tories such as London Mayor Boris Johnson, who accused him of "pussyfooting around", and Tim Yeo, who questioned whether he was "man or mouse". 

However, he faces an immediate challenge from the Tory right, with David Davis - who fought him for the party leadership in 2005 - setting out his alternative strategy for growth. Before proceedings in the Commons have even started, Mr Davis will use a lunchtime speech to the Centre for Policy Studies think-tank to call for a radical programme of cuts to taxes, regulation and public spending to kick-start the economy.

Meanwhile, Mr Cameron's party management skills will be put to the test as he seeks to re-boot his Government with a reshuffle of his top team. Many of the most senior figures are expected to remain in their present posts - including Chancellor George Osborne, Foreign Secretary William Hague, Home Secretary Theresa May, Education Secretary Michael Gove, Work and Pensions Secretary Iain Duncan Smith and Defence Secretary Philip Hammond - leaving limited room for manoeuvre. 

Justice Secretary Kenneth Clarke is also rumoured to be one of those moved on, as there will be no big jobs available he's likely to be out of the cabinet unless he is made Conservative party chairman. Talking of the Conservative Party chairman much attention has focused on the key role of Baroness Warsi has publicly appealed to Mr Cameron to allow her to carry on in the post, but some Tory MPs want to see her replaced with a big hitter who can galvanise support for the party. 

As it is rumoured the Department for International Development will be abolished and the brief return to the Foreign Office. If that is the case they Baroness Warsi could easily be moved to the Foreign Office as Minister of State for International Development. It is thought that the International Development Secretary Andrew Mitchell will be moved to number 12 Downing Street to become the Government Chief Whip.

Also thought that the three regional offices will be merged into one as most of the roles of those departments have been devolved to the regional governments. Cheryl Gillan is likely to be sacked as Welsh Secretary, Owen Paterson the Northern Ireland Secretary may well stay with the new merged department as a Minister of State. Scottish Secretary Michael Moore is a Lib Dem and therefore Mr Clegg's problem. Although the Secretary of State for the regions, if it happens is likely to be a Liberal Democrat.

DEFRA Secretary Caroline Spelman hasn't performed well in her role and her junior ministers have been shown as incompetent to put it nicely so there is likely to be a completely new team at DEFRA. Eric Pickles like Mrs Spelman may also be dreading the phone ringing tomorrow as I suspect he will be sacked as DCLG Secretary. Jeremy Hunt the embattled Culture Secretary is also likely to be out of the cabinet.

Employment minister Chris Grayling and housing minister Grant Shapps have been touted as possible alternatives from outside the Cabinet. Mr Cameron may carry out a more far-reaching shuffle when he comes to the middle and lower ministerial ranks, taking the opportunity to get rid of under-performers and to blood new talent from the 2010 intake of new MPs.

Nick Clegg will also be reshuffling his team as well. David Laws is likely to return to Cabinet. Jo Swinson currently PPS to the Deputy Prime Minister is likely to get promoted as well. Lynne Featherstone hasn't performed well at the Home Office and may well be sent to the backbenches. Ed Davey who only replaced Chris Huhne at Energy & Climate Change recently is likely to be safe. Danny Alexander may well be demoted if not simply sacked to free up a Treasury role for Vince Cable. That would allow David Laws to go to Business Secretary. 

However like with the Tories it is purely speculation as only two men know what is actually planned and they are David Cameron and Nick Clegg.