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Thursday, 27 November 2014

Poll finds Labour comfortably ahead in the marginals

A new poll conducted by ComRes for ITV News reveals that Labour retains its lead over the Conservatives in the forty most marginal seats where the two parties are fighting head-to-head against each other ahead of the General Election next year.

However, Labour’s lead falls from 11 points in September to eight points now. Its potential vote share has fallen two points to 39%, while the Conservatives are on 31%. At the General Election in 2010, the two main parties were tied on 37% across these seats.

The Liberal Democrats are now on 7%, while UKIP are in third place on 18% – suggesting Nigel Farage’s party could play a significant role in determining who comes out top in these crucial battlegrounds.

Conservative 31% (+1)
Labour 39% (-2)
Liberal Democrat 7% (+1)
UKIP 18% (+1)
Others 4% (-1)

(Figures in brackets show changes from October 2014)

Tom Mludzinski, Head of Political Polling, ComRes said: "While polls have shown a tight race nationally, a focus on these forty seats where the battle between Labour and the Conservatives will be hardest fought shows Ed Miliband’s party significantly ahead, despite David Cameron the favoured choice as Prime Minister. Next year’s General Election still has many permutations, but Labour’s lead in this battleground puts them in a strong position."

The findings of the poll in detail:
  • One in ten people (10%) who voted for Labour in 2010 now say that they would switch to vote UKIP, along with one in five people (21%) who voted Conservative.
  • Voters in marginal seats remain more likely to prefer a Labour to a Conservative government (41% to 36%), but David Cameron over Ed Miliband as Prime Minister (44% to 31%).
  • Nearly half of voters in marginal seats (45%) think that UKIP are a serious party, although 39% think not.
  • Two thirds (64%) think that politicians in Westminster work in their own best interests compared to only one in six (18%) who think MPs work in the best interests of their constituents. UKIP voters (80%) are the most likely to think they act in their own interests, although the majority of voters of all main parties think the same (Conservative 57%, Labour 64%).
  • One in three (33%) voters in marginal seats say they would consider voting for UKIP at the General Election next year, with nearly as many (30%) saying they would vote for the party if they thought it could win in their constituency. 22% of people saying they would currently vote Conservative say they would vote for UKIP if they thought UKIP could win in their constituency. One in seven Labour voters (14%) say the same.