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Thursday 30 October 2014

Poll Shock: Labour facing annihilation in Scotland

After what has been a dreadful few months for the Labour party in Scotland, culminating with the Labour Johann Lamont resigning as party leader, criticising Ed Miliband's leadership style and treating the Scottish Labour party as a "branch office" an Ipsos-Mori poll for STV puts the party on course to win just four seats in May. The timing couldn't be worse for Mr Miliband as he is due in Scotland tonight for a gala dinner with the Scottish Labour party.

One of the candidates standing to take over from Johann Lamont, Jim Murphy, launched his campaign today by pledging to end the streak of "losing Labour" in Scotland, this poll shows Mr Murphy is on course to lose his Renfrewshire East seat to the Scottish Nationalists.

The seat projections shows the only Scottish Labour MPs who would survive would be Gordon Brown in Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath, Willie Bain in Glasgow North East, Tom Clarke in Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill,and Ian Davidson in Glasgow South West. The Liberal Democrats would also lose all but one of their seats, with only Scottish secretary Alistair Carmichael in Orkney and Shetland surviving and high-profile victims including Danny Alexander and Charles Kennedy. The Scottish Tories facing another wipe out north of the boarder.

The Ipsos-Mori/STV Poll figures:
Scottish National Party 52%
Scottish Labour 23%
Scottish Conservatives 10%
Scottish Liberal Democrats 6%
Scottish Greens 6%
United Kingdom Independence Party 2%
Others 1%


Seat projection:
Scottish National Party 54 +48
Scottish Labour 4 -37
Scottish Liberal Democrats 1 -10
Scottish Conservatives 0 -1
Scottish Greens 0
United Kingdom Independence Party 0
Other 0


Meaning the electoral map of Scotland would look like this:

Image courtesy of Britain elects